Botswana’s governing celebration – in energy for just about six many years – is attempting to tug off a trick in Wednesday’s basic election by way of the usage of a word in most cases related to long-suffering opposition teams.
In its manifesto, the Botswana Democratic Birthday celebration (BDP) is looking for “change”.
“Let’s change together and build prosperity for all,” President Mokgweetsi Masisi – answerable for the rustic since 2018 – writes within the advent.
It’s an acknowledgement that issues want to be carried out otherwise – the opposition argues that the president’s celebration isn’t ready to try this.
Despite the fact that analysts say the result of the election is sun-baked to expect this month, the BDP has received good-looking parliamentary majorities on the 11 elections since self determination in 1966.
It due to this fact join the presidency each and every month as MPs elect the pinnacle of situation.
The BDP has been credited with overseeing a calm and dramatic transformation of a broke nation, with only some kilometres of tarred roads at self determination, right into a playground the place moderate dwelling requirements are a number of the absolute best at the continent.
Bottom this variation has been Botswana’s plethora diamond reserves – slow by way of their price, the rustic is the arena’s biggest manufacturer of the gemstone.
And but all isn’t neatly.
Botswana is dealing with bulky financial demanding situations – therefore Masisi’s communicate of alternate.
Multiple in 4 of the operating folk is unemployed, with a good upper share amongst more youthful community, in step with the International Storage.
Politics coach on the College of Botswana Zibani Maundeni described it as a “jobless economy”.
“We are producing graduates every year and the economy is not producing enough jobs for them,” he informed the BBC’s Africa Day by day podcast.
In addition, Botswana’s wealth is not evenly spread around among its 2.3 million people.
By a measure known as the Gini index, researchers say it is one of the most unequal countries in the world.
And the diamond industry appears to be under pressure globally as demand has been falling.
But Masisi and his party continue to project confidence.
At a campaign rally in an opposition stronghold in central Botswana, the president arrived in style in an electric vehicle assembled in the country.
Getting out, the 63-year-old former teacher danced towards the stage greeting supporters in red-and-white party colours.
Laughter rang through the crowd as Masisi’s humour and charisma electrified the audience.
The area – home to the previous President, Ian Khama – elected three opposition MPs in 2019.
This was after Khama defected from the BDP to help form the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), saying he regretted picking Masisi as his successor.
The dramatic fall-out between the two men led to Khama leaving the country, accusing the government of trying to poison him.
Khama was then charged with money laundering, among other crimes, all of which he denies.
It also ended the political dominance of his family – his father, Sir Seretse Khama, was the country’s first president and served for 14 years from 1966.
“I am sorry, please come back home and also call others over,” Masisi told the rally pleading to voters to return to the BDP.
Hair-salon owner, Thandiwe Potso, 32, seemed convinced.
“Masisi truly understands our challenges and brought better programmes to fund our businesses,” she told the BBC, her eyes shining with conviction.
Kabelo Selemo, 45, agreed.
“His policies have helped us grow as you can see we no longer import vegetables. I believe in his vision for our future,” said the small-business owner.
But according to an opinion poll, many others may not be so easy to convince.
Respected non-partisan polling organisation Afrobarometer released a damming report earlier this year.
It said that despite the country ranking highly in good governance on the continent, people in Botswana had a negative view of the government believing there were high levels of corruption.
“Strong majorities express little or no trust in the incumbent and disapprove of the way he has performed his job,” it said.
BDP spokesperson Kagelelo Banks Kentse questioned the credibility of the poll.
He argued that Afrobarometer had in previous elections underestimated support for the BDP and thought it would be no different this time. Though the party is not taking anything for granted.
“I would be very wrong to say that we are over-confident,” Kentse told the BBC.
“I always hear people saying: ‘This is the toughest election we’ve come across’, but we say that in every election year. You never win before the actual vote.”
He admitted that the unemployment rate did not paint a good picture, but argued that every nation on the continent was experiencing similar problems, adding that his party was pledging to create 300,000 more jobs.
Kentse also touted the toughly negotiated deal that Masisi struck with diamond firm De Beers last year for Botswana to benefit more from its natural resources.
Initially the state will get a 30% share of the rough diamonds mined in the country, an increase on the 25% it got previously, rising to 50% within 10 years.
But Dumelang Saleshando, leader of one of the largest opposition parties, argued that the government has just copied others’ ideas.
He said his Botswana Congress Party (BCP) had first set a jobs target, which the BDP had previously rejected saying it was better to leave things to the free market.
One of the slogans Saleshando is deploying is: “Save Botswana”.
“I think people have seen the BDP for what it is,” he told the BBC.
“It certainly cannot argue that it is an agent of change. In the past it has always tried to say it’s about keeping stability – more of the same – and out of panic they are trying to preach what they don’t believe in.”
Supporters of another opposition party – the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), which got the second largest share of the vote in 2019, came out in their numbers in the north of the capital, Gaborone.
Dressed in blue-and-white T-shirts and sun hats, they cheered leader Duma Boko.
Unlike Masisi, Boko generally remained serious, in order to emphasise how much the people were suffering under the BDP.
He alleged that there were attempts to rig the poll.
“I urge you all to be vigilant and after voting out the BDP you remain at the polling station to guard your vote,” he said.
Thapelo Dimpe, a 45-year-old former teacher, has no doubts about why he wants to see the president’s party defeated.
“Masisi has let us down on education reform. The UDC plans to invest in our schools and empower our youth with the education they deserve,” he said.
Although the government has a host of problems that could dent its support, opposition divisions could enable the BDP to stay in power.
Every MP is elected on a first-past-the-post basis, meaning that to win a seat, the BDP only needs the largest number of votes in a constituency rather than more than 50%.
In a seat where the UDC, BCP or BPF – or a number of other parties – are running, it could mean that the opposition vote is split, allowing the BDP to get in.
“These parties seem to have factionalism within themselves, they keep taking internal issues to the media – they are not really united,” political analyst Lesole Machacha told the BBC.
But he also pointed out that the BDP had its own problems.
“The ruling party is not 100% intact – it is also having issues. In some constituencies BDP politicians who were not happy with the primary process are running as independent candidates, which could divide that vote,” Mr Machacha said.
All this makes for a closely fought and unpredictable election, he added.
For one of Africa’s most successful political parties, the question now is whether enough people are convinced that it can oversee the change that the country needs.